• Bitcoin fell over 21% from its $109,114 high, now trading at $85,205.
• Short-term holder activity has declined, resembling patterns seen before mid-2024’s major rally.
• Analyst Crypto Dan sees maturing market structure, hinting at possible upside after brief consolidation.

Bitcoin has endured a turbulent stretch in recent months. After reaching an all-time high of $109,114 earlier this year, its value has dropped more than 21%, unsettling even experienced investors. Currently priced at $85,205, Bitcoin has seen a 0.87% increase over the past 24 hours.

Amid this downturn, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan highlights a potential indicator of market behavior. The report highlights the percentage of Bitcoin held for a duration between one week and one month—a metric that often reflects the intensity of short-term trading. Historically, a rise in this figure has correlated with increased market activity, frequently followed by a period of correction.

Consistent with past cycles, the market has followed a familiar pattern: an uptick in speculative interest, a subsequent price surge, and a corrective decline. That final stage appears to be in motion now. According to the data, short-term holder activity has dropped back into a zone that previously marked the end of the 2024 slump.

Bitcoin Fresh Patterns Mirror Past Rally Setups

The green age band on CryptoQuant’s chart, which indicates tokens held between one week and one month, has recently declined into the yellow zone last observed before Bitcoin’s mid-2024 breakout. This pattern previously signaled a major price rally, suggesting speculative excess has been largely flushed from the market.

Earlier in 2024, Bitcoin exceeded its previous cycle high, reaching a new all-time peak of $73,750. That surge reflected intense market optimism. However, a prolonged six-month correction soon followed, dragging the price down to nearly $49,000. Geopolitical instability during that period further intensified the downturn.

Momentum began to return as Donald Trump launched his re-election bid. His vocal support for Bitcoin helped revive market sentiment. After winning the presidency in November, Bitcoin didn’t just rebound — it accelerated sharply. The price surpassed the March peak and continued climbing, setting new records throughout late January 2025.

Analyst Sees New Growth Leg if Conditions Align

Crypto Dan identifies early signals of market recovery. Although he warns against expecting an immediate surge, he considers the recent correction to be a sign of market maturation. According to his assessment, a short consolidation period may still occur; however, the underlying structure continues to support the possibility of an upward movement.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions are aligning in ways that could support broader market growth in the months ahead. Reinforcing this perspective, speculative activity has cooled noticeably, with no evidence of excessive exuberance across technical charts.

In contrast, certain market participants interpret the current environment as reflective of bearish conditions. Despite this caution, even critical observers concede that significant corrections often precede robust recoveries.

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