American Spring – Richard Mills

(www.
Newswire) The Arab Spring refers to a series of
anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that spread
across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s. Largely a response
to corruption and economic stagnation, the Arab Spring started over a
shortage of bread.

When grain prices spiked in 2007, bread prices in Egypt rose 37%.
Chronic unemployment meant more people depended on subsidized bread,
but the government didn’t make any more available. This led to
social unrest that eventually unseated Egyptian President Mubarek.

The
Tunisian uprising started in more dramatic fashion, when a young man
running a vegetable stand set himself on fire to protest corruption.
Many believe his act of self-immolation was the start of the Arab
Spring. 

By 2018 the Arab Spring’s momentum had slowed considerably,
however the following year, mass protests started happening in other
parts of the world. Many were sparked by anger over the economy,
rising inequality and high costs of living.

Arguably the
same thing could happen in the United States in the coming months.
With 38 million people living below the government’s poverty
threshold of USD$25,000 for a family of four (nearly 12% of the
population) that is a very large group of people that could take to
the streets if essential goods keep climbing beyond their reach,

We at AOTH believe this is a distinct possibility given there are so
many price pressures likely to keep food, energy, transportation and
housing costs pushing higher.

But it’s not just the
prices of groceries, rent and electricity that could result in an
American Spring.

There’s also anger resulting from extreme partisanship in the
United States at the political level, that is filtering down to
communities, families and individuals. Has there even been a time when
Americans were so divided over politics? 

A microcosm of this divide is what’s happening in Minneapolis
and could be the match that lights the powder keg. After an ICE agent
shot and killed a protester fleeing in her car, Trump vowed a day of
“reckoning and retribution” in Minnesota, as the
Department of Homeland Security surged thousands more Immigration and
Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to the state this week (Fox News).

The killing of Renee Good sparked nation-wide
protests.

Earlier this week, a second shooting occurred in
Minneapolis, with a man shot and injured by an ICE agent after he
allegedly assaulted the agent.

During the struggle, DHS said two people came out of a nearby
apartment and attacked the officer with a snow shovel and a broom
handle. After the suspect got loose and joined the attack, the
officer fired defensive shots, DHS said, striking the man in the
leg.

CNN said Trump has warned he might invoke the centuries-old Insurrection
Act “to deploy US troops to Minnesota, as state and federal
officials clash over tactics used by immigration agents.”

Broadly
speaking there is no middle ground left, politics in the US is
democratic socialism versus fascism. Socialists, in the view of
right-leaning Americans hold liberal views on hot-button issues of the
day such as gay rights, the environment/ climate change, abortion, gun
control, immigration, and taxation. A woke agenda mocked and pilloried
by the right.

Socialists hold the believe that the GOP is
embracing Fascism, an ultranationalist, authoritarian political
ideology that glorifies the nation and state above the individual,
characterized by a totalitarian government led by a dictator, extreme
militarism, suppression of opposition, and severe social/economic
control, opposing democracy, liberalism, and communism. It emphasizes
national unity, often through exclusionary definitions of who belongs,
and uses violence and propaganda to achieve its goals, prioritizing
national strength and perceived decline.

The left is equally as hostile to anyone on the right with
conservative views on the above issues. This starts with the Trump
administration, especially its Project 25 backers who want to reverse the woke agenda. 

The
left view anyone who backs Trump as supportive of his fascist agenda
which includes finding and deporting immigrants using ICE agents
toting guns, masked-up and clad in body armor; ruling by Executive
Order rather than consulting Congress; involving himself in the crypto market; creating a “plutocracy” where the interest of the
wealthy take precedence over the general public (Trump has appointed
numerous billionaires and wealthy individuals to top government
positions); and corruption, such as spending $400 million on a new ballroom as regular Americans struggle to pay for groceries and fight
for their medical.

There is also the feeling that this
administration is acting in an authoritarian manner that favors
military adventurism abroad (the sovereignty of Venezuela, Colombia,
Greenland and Canada have all been threatened), and does not tolerate
domestic dissent, especially from the media.

The social
democrats or communists — to the right they’re one and the
same — scored a recent win in the election of Zohran Mamdani,
New York City’s first Muslim, left-wing mayor, who has
“pledged to reshape the global finance capital by making the
city more affordable for its working-class residents and pushing back
against the policies of President Donald Trump,” states Aljazeera.

An AI Overview gives us a good summary of this
US-centric divide:

In U.S. politics today, the terms
“communist” and “fascist” are often used as
rhetorical attacks, especially by the right against Democrats
(labeling progressive policies as “communism” or
“Marxism”), while Democrats and the left often accuse
Donald Trump and his movement of fascist tendencies (authoritarianism,
targeting opponents). While genuine communist groups exist (like the
CPUSA) focusing on class struggle and opposing
capitalism/neoliberalism, they see fascism as a distinct threat to be
fought, rather than a shared ideology with the right. The debate
highlights differing views on threats to democracy, with conservatives
seeing “globalists” as the enemy and progressives fearing
authoritarianism.

Here we take a deep dive into the factors
that could directly or indirectly cause a major political insurrection
in the United States — an American Spring.

Food

The coronavirus pandemic was a trial run for what could happen if
there is a shortage of food. The pandemic put tremendous pressure on
supply chains, and the prices of many agricultural commodities such as
grain, corn and soybeans skyrocketed.

The war in Ukraine,
considered “the breadbasket of Europe” for its
exceptionally fertile black soil called chernozem, and favorable
climate that made it a large exporter of grains (wheat, corn, barley),
along with sunflower products, made the food supply situation
worse. 

According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
global food prices rose for nine straight months. Increases in the
prices of grains, like corn and soybeans used in animal feed,
typically get passed down the supply chain to the cost of meats,
including chicken, pork and beef.

Global food price increases are clearly of concern for seniors
living on fixed incomes, the poor on social assistance, and the
working poor getting by paycheck to paycheck.

While food
prices in the United States have come down from their 2022 peak, they
are still elevated. The latest data shows US food inflation surged 0.7% on the month, the biggest rise since 2022, lifting the annual food inflation rate
to 3.1% in December.

Reuters reported there were notable increases ‍in the prices of fruits and
vegetables as well as dairy products. Beef prices, a sore point among
Americans, rose 1%, with the cost of steaks rising 17.8% year on year
in December, the largest advance in four years. Coffee prices rose
1.9% due to tariffs, and the cost of restaurant food climbed 0.7%. Egg
prices fell 8.2%. 

But it’s more than just adding a few dollars onto your
weekly shop.

Even a shallow understanding of history shows
how restricted access to food, and skyrocketing prices of staples like
bread, corn and rice, can quickly lead to social unrest. The three
basic elements of survival are clean air, fresh water and food. Humans
can only last a couple of days without water, and most will starve to
death if deprived of food for more than two weeks.

Food
inflation has historically been the catalyst for many popular
uprisings, from the French Revolution to the (US) Flour Riot of 1837,
the Richmond Bread Riot of 1863, and more recently, the Arab Spring.
When people can’t afford to eat, when work has dried up and they
can no longer feed their families, when housing represents more than
two-thirds of income, a point of reckoning is reached.

According
to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), 33.6 million US
adults and nearly 14 million children lived in food-insecure
households in 2023. That means more than 1 in 8 households had
difficulty acquiring food due to lack of resources. 

Households with young children are more likely to experience food
insecurity. More than 1 in 7 (15.5%) households with infants and
toddlers under 3 were food insecure in 2023, compared to 11.9% of
households without children and 13.5% of all households, states the
CBPP. 

Global warming and agriculture

Let me make something very clear, climate change is a misnomer,
climate change started 24,000 years ago when the world came out of the
cold locker, and the earth started a warming cycle. The earth is still
warming and will continue to do so until it isn’t. The proper
term we should be using is global warming.

According to Bloomberg, Climate change and associated weather volatility will make it
increasingly harder to produce enough food for the world, with the
poorest nations typically feeling the hardest blow. In some cases,
social and political unrest follows.

A study by Cornell University found that rising global
temperatures have prevented a fifth of agricultural output since the
1960s.

This “new normal” of suffocating heat,
droughts, freak storms and flooding, is not only causing discomfort
and in cases of the most vulnerable, deaths, it is reducing the amount
of available food that could lead to the starvation of millions
worldwide.

The United Nations Food Program is warning of a
“looming catastrophe”, with about 50 million globally on
the brink of famine. The group points to climate change as a major
contributor to the sharp increase in hunger and emphasizes that food
inflation is on the rise as farmers deal with the impacts of extreme
weather.

Desertification refers to the process of turning
arable land into desert usually as a result of deforestation, drought
or harmful agricultural practices. Removing vegetation also takes away
nutrients from the soil, making the land unsuitable for farming.
According to the UNCCD, around 12 million hectares of productive land
become barren every year as a result of desertification and
drought.

Global warming accelerates desertification because
warmer temperatures dry out once-fertile land, which then makes the
area even hotter. Removing plants from the ground also increases
greenhouse gas emissions, since they can no longer serve as carbon
sinks.

Research shows the human race is far
over-extending itself and if reductions aren’t made or
productivity doesn’t improve, it will eventually run
out of food, rendering the Green Revolution a failure.

A report from the World Resources Institute concludes that feeding the world’s 9.8 billion in 2050
will require clearing most of the world’s remaining forests. The
removal of the world’s carbon sinks would of course result in
further warming, increasing the risk of crop failure and mass
starvation.

Electricity

A
December report found energy bills, household electricity, have
increased 13% since Trump took office in January 2025. Since 2010, the
average price of electricity in the US has risen by 30%, according to the World Resources Institute. It quotes an October study from the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory and the
Brattle Group that says there are many factors driving the increases,
including infrastructure impacts from extreme weather like wildfires
and hurricanes, grid upgrades needed for modernization and resilience,
and volatility of fossil-fuel costs.

Sweltering cities

If Americans can’t afford electricity, they
can’t afford to heat their homes in winter or air-condition them
in summer.

Heat waves are becoming more common especially
in the eastern and southern United States, although the “heat
dome” of 2021 affected the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada;
619 Canadians died as temperatures climbed above 40 degrees
Celsius.

As usual, the vulnerable were most affected. 98%
of the fatalities occurred indoors. Most of the deaths were attributed
to seniors, many with mobility issue, stuck in houses or apartments
without a/c.

Last year, there were more than 530 suspected
heat-related deaths in Maricopa, a county within Phoenix, Arizona. The
2025 death toll is on top of another 3,100 heat-related fatalities
over the previous decade.

Heat is the leading
weather-related cause of illness and death in the US.

Inflation

Food and beverage prices make up around 14% of the
Consumer Price Index. The other seven categories are housing, apparel,
transportation, medical care, recreation, education/ communications,
and other goods and services. 

The latest CPI inflation report on Jan. 13 shows the CPI
increased by 0.3% in December. A 0.4% increase in the cost of shelter,
which includes rents, was the main driver of the rise in the CPI.

Reuters notes oil prices have begun to tick up again, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable and
controversial foreign policy agenda raising geopolitical tensions.
True, oil prices remain relatively low and may well be capped by a
looming oversupply, but the recent uptick is still liable to worry
U.S. households nonetheless.

The news outlet quotes New York Fed President John Williams saying he
expects inflation to peak close to 3% in the first half of this year,
ease in the second half, and return to the central bank’s 2%
target next year.

Research by Visual Capitalist shows US inflation has increased 92% over the past 25 years.
While CPI inflation has fallen to 3.1%, prices are around 25% higher
than they were in 2020.

The infographic shows the cost of
many essentials, including hospital services, childcare, medical care,
housing, and the cost of food, are rising at a faster rate than
overall inflation.

Hospital services costs have risen the most, 275% since 2000. Another
top inflation category is college tuition and fees, rising 196% over
the same 25-year period. Housing inflation has jumped 111%
compared to a 92% increase for all US items.

Some items
have become more expensive more slowly, while others have actually
dropped in price. New and used vehicle inflation is 25%, while the
prices of televisions and software have declined. TVs for example are
98% cheaper than they were in 2000.

Canadians may be
wondering how our inflation is doing. It rose in tandem with US
inflation following the pandemic and also dropped as higher interest
rates stifled consumer demand. But recent data points to a crisis of
unaffordability.

The latest MNP Consumer Debt Index report
finds 71% of Canadians are expecting the cost of living to worsen in
2026. More alarmingly, 50% of those polled feel they are $200 or less
away from being unable to pay all their bills and debt obligations in
a month (Global News)

A recent TransUnion credit report suggested one in five Canadians
plan to take on more debt this year to keep up with costs, mostly
via credit cards.

And more than half of those polled (51
per cent) said they believed they’ll likely have to go into
more debt to cover all their cost of living expenses in the next
year.

Dollar decline  

Inflation
not only raises consumer and producer prices, it devalues the
currency, i.e., the US dollar.

A basket of basic breakfast
items—1 loaf of bread, 1 dozen eggs, 1 lb bacon, 1 quart of
milk, and 1 lb of coffee—cost roughly $0.60 – $0.80
in 1913. The same basket of goods, in 2025, was estimated to cost
between $18.00 – $25.00 or more.

The chart below shows how far the dollar has been devalued
since the Fed was created in 1913.

When measured against a basket of currencies, the US Dollar Index has
fallen nearly 10% over the past year. 

The US dollar is the most important unit of account for
international trade the main medium of exchange for settling
international transactions and the store of value for central
banks.

President Donald Trump has boldly imposed a new era
of US economic policy dominated by tariffs trade wars and threats to
the sovereignty of nations it has long considered allies.

The
president is rewriting the rules of international trade mostly by
disregarding them as he pursues an America First agenda.

The
cost to the United States of Trump’s trade war and country
takeover rhetoric has already cost America its reputation.

Is
the US dollar and its status as the world’s most important
reserve currency also about to be tossed into the rubbish bin of world
history?

A de-dollarization movement that started a few
years ago is gathering pace. De-dollarization is being pursued by
countries with agendas at odds with the United States, such as Russia,
Iran and China.

Since Trump has returned for a second term,
his tariffs and trade wars have accelerated the declining dominance of
the dollar. 

Video — Is the US dollar done?

Commodities

In line with a sinking dollar,
the prices of many commodities, which are priced in US dollars, have
risen of late. Gold, silver and copper all hit record highs last year
for the first time in decades.

While much has been written
on the dawn of a new commodities super-cycle, including this post by Kitco News in 2024, heavily referencing my writing at the time, there is
evidence to prove that a commodities super-cycle has already begun.

Take
the following post by Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo
Bank and a frequently quoted commodities and precious metals pundit:

Investopedia says commodity prices are believed to be a leading indicator of
inflation through two channels: First, commodity prices respond
quickly to general economic shocks such as increases in demand.
Second, changes in prices reflect systemic shocks such as hurricanes,
which can decrease the supply of agricultural products and
subsequently increase supply costs. Growers pass these higher costs
onto consumers, who pay more for agricultural products.

Oil
is another good example. When the price of oil increases, the cost of
manufacturing plastics, synthetic materials or chemical products will
also rise and be passed onto consumers

Commodities: the last safe haven standing — Richard Mills

Tariffs blowback

It isn’t only
the poor and working poor who are being most affected by inflation and
weaker dollar purchasing power. Trump’s tariffs are having
negative effects on farmers on both sides of the Canada-US border.

Let’s
start with potash. A 10% tariff on Canadian and Mexican potash,
imported into the US that doesn’t meet CUSMA rules of origin,
was imposed in early 2025.

Later in the year, Trump
threatened higher, unspecified tariffs on Canadian potash to grow the
US market for the fertilizer ingredient.

The problem is
that Canada supplies 80% of US potash imports, with the next biggest
producers being Russia and Belarus. Only 10% of US needs are currently
supplied domestically.

Last year potash was added to the US
critical minerals list.

If Trump follows through on higher
potash tariffs, it would mean that higher fertilizer costs would be borne by US farmers.

A $12 billion aid package has already been promised to them to deal with the economic fallout from tariffs. What happens to
payments to farmers, and many other groups promised relief, if the
Supreme Court says they are illegal and have to be paid back?

The Guardian notes China only recently resumed purchases of American soybeans
after shifting to other producers such as Argentina and Brazil after
President Xi Jinping struck a deal with the United States in October.

Unfortunately, even if China buys all the soybeans they agreed to buy,
and so far, they haven’t lived up to the agreement, they will
only purchase 14% of what they bought between ’22 and 2024.

US
farmers were effectively frozen out by China due to retaliatory
tariffs (20-25%) on US soybean imports. The tariffs made US soybeans
uncompetitive against cheaper product from Brazil and Argentina.

“They’ve
produced a bumper crop this year, just to find out they have nowhere
to sell their harvest thanks to Trump’s trade policies,”
Minnesota’s Democratic Governor Tim Walz said.

It’s
not the first time a Trump trade plan has hurt soybean farmers: in
2018, a trade war led to significant reductions in soybean exports to
China, states the Guardian.

More pain has been inflicted on
US (and Canadian) farmers through the imposition of tariffs on farm
equipment. The situation is complex, but in a nutshell, for US farm
equipment entering Canada, Canada has a 25% surtax on US steel and
aluminum products, which increases the cost of equipment and parts.

For
Canadian farm equipment entering the US, the US increased tariffs
to 35% on many products not originating under CUSMA in
August 2025, impacting machinery and parts. A 50% tariff applies to
steel and aluminum imports into the US.

The upshot? Farmers
face higher prices for seeds, new equipment, fertilizer, herbicides,
pesticides, insecticides and replacement parts due to tariffs,
affecting farm profitability.

Stock market bubble pop?

Investors might be crowing now about their mega returns
that have carried over into 2026 after a banner year in stock markets,
but these are only gains on paper until a stock is sold.

According
to RBC Wealth Management, “The U.S. equity market delivered its
third straight year of double-digit and above-average gains, with the
S&P 500 rising 17.9 percent including dividends in 2025, boosting
the total return to 100.6 percent since this bull market
began in Oct. 2022 through the end of last year.”

But
it’s not all puppies and rainbows. Some observers predict a
correction in the AI-fueled stock market frenzy, or worse, a popping
of the AI bubble. Others say AI is nothing like the dot-com frenzy and
let the goods times roll. In short, it’s a subject of
considerable debate.

A report released Thursday by
Moody’s Ratings says there are warning signs in the current
environment.

“These include the strong enthusiasm
behind the technology, rapid valuation increases — even among
companies recording significant losses — and a degree of FOMO or
‘fear of missing out’ influencing investor
behaviour,” it said, via Investment Executive.

If the bubble bursts, the impacts could be significant.
The report says it “would ripple across the tech ecosystem,
hitting loss-making AI labs, well-established tech firms and
ultimately the entire supply chain.”

Retail investors
whose retirement savings are invested in US and Canadian stock markets
could find themselves facing a sea of red ink — some without a
long enough investment horizon to see a recovery could end up selling
at big losses.

Smart investors are booking profits as they
continue riding the wave.

Geopolitical tensions/ military adventurism

The world is definitely becoming more dangerous with
Trump as the commander-in-chief, despite promising voters that his
“America First” doctrine would avoid foreign
entanglements.

A year into his term, we have seen America
bomb Iran; provide military aid to Israel as it decimated the Gaza
Strip; abduct the president of Venezuela and his wife, ostensibly to
face criminal charges in the US, while vowing to seize control of the
country’s vast oil reserves; carry out air strikes against ISIS
targets in Nigeria and Somalia; and threaten the sovereignty of
Canada, Greenland and Colombia.

Canadians dislike the US
administration so much that many have refused to travel there until
Trump leaves office. According to Statscan, Canadian return trips by
car from the US declined for the 12th straight month. The December
2025 trips were 30.7% less than December 2024. Air travel saw a
similar drop, with the number of Canadian return trips from the US at
470,700, declining 18.7% compared to December 2024, per Global News.

A report from Eurasia Group, a political consultancy,
identifies what it calls a potential US “political
revolution” — driven by U.S. President Donald
Trump’s efforts to consolidate power, “capture the
machinery of government, and weaponize it against his enemies”
— as the most significant threats to global stability this
year.

“The Trump administration has a view that they
are the masters of the Western Hemisphere, and they can do what they want to whomever they want, whenever they
want,” former foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy said, warning
that Canada must be prepared for a more aggressive and transactional U.S. approach to
national security and geopolitics. (CTV News)

If there is one thing that sums up the Trump
administration’s belligerent stance on foreign policy,
it’s the renaming of the Defense Department to the Department of
War. Who is the US currently at war with? 

Adding
insult to injury, the name change is likely to cost up to $125
million, and hundreds of millions more if it becomes a legal name, the
Congressional Budget Office estimates in an ABC News story.

Conclusion

The recent murder
in Minneapolis by an ICE agent and the reaction to it reveals the deep
divide in American politics. Watching the video, it is clear that the
agent had no cause to discharge his weapon on a busy street during a
confrontation with a mouthy motorist.

Despite being a 10-year veteran, the agent had no clear line of sight,
and by firing his weapon he put his nearby colleague in danger, along
with others on the street. He shot at a moving car, hitting the driver
and causing her to jam her foot down on the accelerator until it
crashed into another car. 

That was the real danger in that situation, that somehow the car would
go out of control and hit a pedestrian.

Pro-Trump media like Fox News blamed the victim. They called her a
left-wing terrorist, said she was interfering with ICE, and that
basically she deserved to die.

The Trump propaganda machine
went into full attack mode, and more Americans watch Fox News than any
other television news media.

I believe what’s
happening in Minneapolis, with hundreds more ICE agents deployed and
Trump threatening to implement the Insurrection Act, symbolizes
what’s wrong in America and could be the spark that lights the
American Spring.

On top of anger over ICE overreach, we
have a multitude of factors that could result in a massive political
insurrection, perhaps similar to the storming of the Capitol but this
time by those on the left. 

A crisis of unaffordability is building, based on high food, energy,
transportation and housing prices. Inflation is reducing
American’s purchasing power and the mighty buck is losing its
dominance to other currencies like the euro and the yuan. The BRICS have launched a prototype of a currency backed by gold. The Unit is a gold-anchored digital trade currency designed for
cross-border settlement. Its launch coincides with record public
anxiety about dollar debasement.

Food inflation has
historically been the catalyst for many popular uprisings, from the
French Revolution to the (US) Flour Riot of 1837, the Richmond Bread
Riot of 1863, and more recently, the Arab Spring.

When
people are hungry and their kids are crying, they take to the
streets.

Global warming is making it harder to grow food in
the quantities required. According to the United
Nations’ 2024 World Population Prospects report, the global population is projected to reach 8.5 billion people by
the year 2030, 9.7 billion people by 2050, and 10.3 billion people by
2080, where it will remain until 2100.

Global warming
accelerates desertification because warmer temperatures dry out
once-fertile land, which then makes the area even hotter. Removing
plants from the ground also increases greenhouse gas emissions, since
they can no longer serve as carbon sinks.

Remember,
“the top 20 cm of soil is all that stands between us and
extinction.”

Let them eat cake — Richard Mills

2025 was the third hottest year on record, European scientists said, and no relief from the heat is expected in 2026.

Poor
Americans unable to afford the necessities of life, including medical
care, sweltering in apartments that lack air conditioning, or have it
but the tenants can’t afford to pay for it, is, imo, a recipe
for disaster.

President Trump has been musing in public about not having a midterm
election this November. He’s mentioned two reasons, war, and
that ‘his’ economy is doing so well there’s no need.
Cancelling or postponing this year’s elections in the US will
lead to riots across the US. This will result in the Trump enacting
the Insurrectionist Act.

Add in anger towards the uncaring
current administration — more interested in invading foreign
countries, enriching its friends, and spending millions on ballrooms
than taking care of people at home — and you have the perfect
conditions for an American Spring. 

America is going to burn.

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