Monthly Highs in USD, Monthly Lows in GDXJ…
July 29, 2025 ( Newswire) As per the title —
we’re seeing more and
more confirmations
that the trend has changed.
USD and GDXJ Return to April Extremes
The
forex market
clearly supports it. The USD Index just moved above 99, and it’s the
first time this month that it’s happening.
Conversely, even before today’s session — during yesterday’s
trading — the GDXJ moved to new monthly lows in intraday
terms, and then closed the day at the fresh new monthly low in tune
with
my previous comments.
That was also a daily close clearly below the flag pattern. Unlike
the mid-July breakdown, this one is clear as GDXJ closed well below
the lower border of the pattern, not just slightly so.
It was also a close below the April intraday high. This is bearish,
but it will be even more bearish when we see a daily close below the
highest close of April. To simplify, a close below $65 in the GDXJ
will serve as the final warning — if you missed the entry to
short this sector beforehand, this might be your last chance before
the decline accelerates.
In fact, if you look one more time at the previous USD Index chart,
you’ll see something special about the price moves that ended at the
current price levels.
Namely, the April slide in the USDX and the April rally in the GDXJ
both ended more or less where both instruments are trading right
now. The moves in both directions can be similar, with the moves to
the downside having a chance of being even more volatile (fear is a
stronger emotion than greed).
This means that once USDX’s rally accelerates and GDXJ finally
breaks below the April high, the move lower could be quite sharp.
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a quite quick slide to the
$50 area — to the April bottom.
I realize that this might not seem realistic given that GDXJ did
barely anything in the recent weeks, but I assure you that this is
more than possible. In fact, periods of low volatility tend to be
followed by periods of high volatility and vice versa. It looks like
a sharp move is going to take place soon. And given the confirmed
breakout in the USDX and confirmed breakdown in the GDXJ, it is also
quite clear in which direction the markets will move.
Right now, we are on the verge of those moves —
also in gold. We can
see something similar in other markets, too.
Platinum
already moved back below its June high, but it’s taking a break
before declining more. Again — it’s on a verge of the big move
lower.
SILJ Volume Spikes Echo 2021 Top
Silver price broke
below its upper rising support line, but it hasn’t broken below the
lower one yet. Once this level and June high are broken, the door to
much lower silver prices will be wide open.
And as you saw in April — silver can decline very fast.
To clarify, silver remains my favorite
long-term investment, however, it doesn’t change the fact that I think that it’s going
to decline when the USD Index rallies, especially if the stock
market declines as well.
The final chart for today is the one featuring SILJ — the
silver junior mining stocks ETF.
The thing that I want to emphasize here is the increase in volume
that we saw very recently. This is the second volume spike in a
relatively short period. We saw something similar in the past, and
it happened right at the 2021 top.
SILJ did NOT break into new highs, it simply encountered very strong
resistance. The sudden increase in volume represents the sudden
increase in interest in this ETF — that’s what tends to
accompany tops, and the analogy to 2021 proves it.
Thank you for reading my today’s analysis – I appreciate that you
took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If
you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99%
investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses -
sign up for our free gold newsletter now.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
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