PlanB’s Bitcoin ETF Move: A Misstep in an Era of Self-Custody

The Bitcoin community was recently shaken by news that PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has moved his entire BTC holdings into a spot Bitcoin ETF. This revelation has sparked a wave of reactions, ranging from mild surprise to outright disappointment. While some see it as a logical step for risk management, others argue it contradicts the very ethos of Bitcoin: self-sovereignty and decentralization.

Who Is PlanB?

For those unfamiliar, PlanB rose to prominence in 2019 with his Stock-to-Flow model, which aimed to predict Bitcoin’s price based on its scarcity. The model gained a cult-like following during Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, though its accuracy has been questioned in recent years. Despite this, PlanB has remained an influential figure in Bitcoin circles, often advocating for its long-term value proposition. His decision to move from self-custody to a Wall Street-controlled ETF raises important questions about security, trust, and the future of Bitcoin adoption.

The ETF vs. Self-Custody Debate

At first glance, shifting Bitcoin into a spot ETF might seem like a reasonable move for some investors. ETFs offer regulatory protections, easier access for institutional players, and a simplified way to hold BTC without worrying about private keys or security risks. PlanB cited “peace of mind” as his primary reason for making the switch, but in doing so, he inadvertently raises a deeper concern: what does this mean for the broader Bitcoin movement?

Bitcoin was designed as an antidote to the failures of centralized finance. Its fundamental promise is the ability to hold wealth in a form that cannot be confiscated, censored, or diluted. By moving his holdings into an ETF, PlanB is effectively handing over control to third-party custodians who can freeze assets, impose withdrawal restrictions, or become subject to regulatory overreach. If even prominent Bitcoin analysts are opting for custodial solutions, what message does that send to the broader market?

Lessons from History: Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins

Bitcoiners have long preached the mantra: “Not your keys, not your coins.” Time and again, we’ve seen the dangers of relying on third-party custodians. From the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 to the implosion of FTX in 2022, history is littered with examples of people losing access to their Bitcoin because they trusted centralized entities. While ETFs may be more regulated than offshore exchanges, they still introduce counterparty risk—something Bitcoin was designed to eliminate.

The Wall Street Trojan Horse

The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs is a double-edged sword. On one hand, they provide mainstream legitimacy and open the doors for more capital inflow. On the other, they concentrate Bitcoin in the hands of institutional players who may not have Bitcoin’s best interests at heart. The endgame for Bitcoin isn’t just higher prices—it’s financial sovereignty for individuals. The more BTC is locked up in ETFs, the more power shifts away from individuals and toward the very system Bitcoin was built to disrupt.

Conclusion: A Step Backward?

PlanB’s move to ETFs might be his personal choice, but it serves as a cautionary tale for Bitcoiners everywhere. If even staunch advocates are willing to relinquish control for convenience, it underscores the urgent need to reemphasize Bitcoin’s core values.

Bitcoin is about freedom, not just price appreciation. While ETFs may offer short-term benefits, they come with long-term trade-offs. True Bitcoiners know that the safest place for their BTC isn’t in an ETF or an exchange—it’s in cold storage, where no third party can touch it. The lesson remains unchanged: If you don’t hold your own keys, you don’t truly own Bitcoin.